Backtesting Secrets Revealed Part 2-申威1600

Business Backtesting Secrets Revealed with The Ultimate Trade Analyzer Part 2 Again, I’m going to show you how we put the trades in in a moment. I just kind of want to point out to you some of the major things that this is. This is nothing more than a spreadsheet that a very smart engineer designed for giving us real insightful information from our basic trade data. Okay? And so each one of these rows here is a trade. And when you enter your trade — we go down at the bottom and I’m going to show you what you have to do. Well, you can see, I don’t have a lot of room. I could add 50 more rows if I want with this button. But basically what you do is you put the date in. You don’t have to use columns, row — column B and C, those are optional filters which I’ll show you in a minute. What you need is the date, time. These are for going long. These two trades — your entry price would be row E or column E. And your exit is column F. For longs and for shorts you use these two columns. And then you label your trade. So I’ve got my trade set up as a basic — B for basic, RE is reentry. OSOB is a symbol because of one of the indicators we used with the SST but it really means reversal, oversold, overbought. When the market is oversold, we take the reversal. And then T, I have a separate trade for trailing stocks. So the way I’ve got this set up is that it’s a two-position strategy so I put in two trades for every trade. You’ll notice the same time stamp, the same entry, sometimes the same exit, sometimes different exits, depending on where the two positions come off the trade. So you can actually test multiple positions but you enter them each as a separate trade. Okay? Once you get all these entered into the UTA — I mean this does take time. It’s laborious. I know a lot of people like, “Oh my God. Isn’t there a way to do this automatically?” And the answers is, “No.” This has to be done manually. This took me quite some time. In fact, I did it, you know, three times, actually, before I ultimately came up with the SST. And, of course, I was on a mission to create a great trade system, and so for me, I was really motivated. I know a lot of people have a hard time getting motivated to do this and I understand that, but once you get into it and you start feeling the changes that occurred to you inside of yourself, it will change you as a trader and you actually start looking forward to working with this. Believe at it. It actually happens. And I’ll explain why in the moment. There are actually very important reasons why doing this manual work of back-testing is so important to success as a trader. A lot of you might be saying, “Gee, wouldn’t it be better if I can just, you know, push a button and get automated results within automation?” And you can do that, actually. Not with this but, obviously, if you’re on TradeStation and you have a strategy, yeah, you can do that. You can get automated results. But what you’re not going to get is some of the stuff that most people don’t realize, and that is how it changes you as a trader. How it gives you the belief and the confidence that you need to take the next trade even when you’re experiencing some red bunch of losses. Losing is a part of trading. When you’re putting in trades and you’re putting in a couple of losses in a row, you get a losing session, come right back with another losing session, you start questioning, you start feeling that lump in your throat. You start losing confidence. But if you just stay with the trade plan, the winner start coming. And even despite the losers, the winning results pile in. And you end up with a big result at the end of the week and you witness over and over again the relationship between wins and losses in a win-loss column. All of a sudden you don’t start — you know, you start losing your fear of the losses and you realize that the losses are part of the winning formula. When you learn that you have to trade through losses to get to the winners, that’s when you take the big step towards success because there’s no way to separate the two. And everyone tries, we all try to avoid losses, what ends up happening is that you avoid the winners and you end up getting the losses. There are a lot of psychological reasons why that I’m not going to get into today. But you can solve that problem, that’s the most important thing, by working with a tool like this because when you take the time to put in trades like this and then you click on over and you see that you’ve got an equity curve like that despite some losses, do you think that was time well spent? Did that took you three months and you could show up tomorrow and trade the trade plan according to your plan? Do you think that’s going to make a big difference to your trading? It is.. It’s going to make a huge difference. Of course, there’s so much more you can learn with the UTA. Once you get your information into the spreadsheet, you can open it up. Now you could start looking at statistics. You can slice and dice your trade data to really uncover some amazing things like a 70% winning percentage for example. There’s all kinds of stuff up here. What’s really cool, though, are the summaries that you can open up. We’re looking at a basic view that gives us the win-loss column. It gives you the summary of each session. But what if you wanted to look at the actual statistics of your session itself? You can just look up the column here now that we’ve opened up the stats. Take a look at — this is per trade, all right, 70%. But look at the winning percentage per session. It’s almost 90%. Do you think that’s going to give you some confidence? How about the weekly sessions? Fifteen weeks. Do you think if you’re winning 100% of your weekly session you’re going to be able to show up on Monday and take the next trade according to the trade plan? You’re going to be able to do that a lot easier, aren’t you? Are you going to be worry about some losses? Here’s a day where it actually lost 66 cents. That’s $660. I mean, obviously, you got to be well capitalized if you’re going to trade crude oil. But this could be the Euro-US. This could be your favorite stock. It doesn’t matter. If you’re losing 66 cents and that freaks you out, how are you going to show up the next day to win it all back on the very next trade? The very next trade, 93 cents in one trade. I mean when you see that happening over and over again, you’re going to become a better trader, don’t you think? This is a very valuable tool. Let me show you what else it can do. Over here when I — I clicked on the expand view button, okay? The basic view is what’s going to give you your win-loss column and your summaries. By the way, this comes with video training. So you don’t have to remember everything I’m telling you right now because we’re not only going to give you the software, we’re going to give you the video training. You’ll be able to watch the videos as often as you want and you’ll learn how to use it. So just sit back and relax. You don’t have to take notes. A lot of convenience buttons over here right in the middle, they’re really great. We’re looking at basic view where you could see the, you know, these basic summaries, monthly, weekly session, your day summaries and your all trade results. You got percent winners, percent losers, profit factor, expectation. Expectation is a pretty cool number. That’s pretty much whether you could expect your system to make money or not going forward. And we talked about that as a tab down here called definitions. If you click on that, it’s going to give you the formulas that we’re using on all the important statistics along with the definition. So that’s a pretty cool little thing right there. If you spend time studying that, you’re going to learn something. When I go to expand view, here I got all these great summaries that I could open up including power of quitting analysis. Imagine that. You can literally test quitting strategies. One of the best and most important though is what you name your trades. Some of you are just trading from the hip. You don’t have a name for your trade. You see a patter you like, you see something, maybe a trend line is going to break, you place a trade. You’re a discretionary trader. That’s fine. You can label those anyway you want. You could track those anyway you want with this tool. Other traders, myself included, are more system traders. We rely on a strategy, a strategy that’s been proven to succeed, to put the edge on your side and to make money. The SST, for example, the one that I developed, using this tool has certain set up types, a basic set up, a reentry, an oversold, overbought setup, in a Trailer for example. And now, of course, the newcomer to the team, the Get BoB. The Get BoB trade, stands for Get Back on Board. It’s another type of reentry. I’ve got this unused space here that I can just edit and call this BoB or Get BoB, for example. And now I can label any new trades that I used as setup and I can get statistics on those setups. So the reason why you label them is because you can go to the summary tab and open it up, and now you can get specific statistics for your trade types. You can look at your basic setup. You can look at your re-entry. You can look at whatever set up you want. You can compare your trailing stop total profit. All you have to do is add up the others. The others are getting out of the fixed target so you got your basic with 20,000, your reversal trade which, really, I just introduced near the end of the study so there’s only nine trades but look how profitable those nine trades were. And your reentries, you add those three up and if that number is smaller, then your trailing stop, then you know the trailing stop is producing. But if the number is bigger, maybe the trailing stop isn’t the best thing to use on this particular market and time frame. That’s a pretty cool piece of information to have, isn’t it? Just by looking at your trade data, you didn’t do any more work, you already put the trades in. But now you can take a microscope to your trade data and see what’s really happening just by labeling the type of trade you’re taking. Pretty cool, huh? There’s more. Here you can compare your winning trades with your losing trades. You can compare your long trades with your short trades to see if you have balance. Long winners, long losers, short winners, short losers. Pretty cool stuff. That’s another way to look at stuff. How about your performance? This is just a running tab of your winning percentage. Trade for trade. A running tab of your profit factor. When you look at these sessions, you could use this column B and you can compare morning session with afternoon session even with an other, maybe a European session or whatever. And you can compare those sessions. Time of day, no problem. What if you were looking for that perfect window of time? I’ve got the set up to show from 8:30 to 9:12. If you type in the bottom — wherever there’s a yellow field, you could type in. So by making this 912, this automatically becomes 9:12. Then I can set another window. So I don’t have — it doesn’t have to be 9:12. What if I wanted to be 9:20? I type in 920 and it automatically updates. Now I got summaries of windows of time. Notice that from 9:20 to 9:30, a 10-minute window, it’s winning 92 in a third percent of the time. Gee, maybe I just want to come and look for 10 minutes and if I got a trade, I take it. And if I don’t have a trade, I just turn off the computer and go about my day. Ten–minute trade plan, there you go. But what about later in the afternoon? From 1300 to 1450? An hour and a half from the p.m. Gee, look at that winning percentage. What’s that tell you? What if you’re trading a 377 tick chart in the morning but you see that on the 610 tick chart it’s winning 90% of the time for the last 90 minutes. It’s pretty valuable. Maybe there’s not enough data yet. It’s only 24 trades. Fair enough. It still points you in the right direction. Keep working on it. Yeah? That makes sense? Starting to see the magic here? You can’t get that from automated testing. You might be able to look at a bunch of numbers but you’re not going to feel what you felt when you put in the trades. You’re not going to feel it. It’s not going to recalibrate you as a trader inside yourself. You’re not going to learn how to remove your self from the equation without using a manual tool like this. You might be able to talk yourself into it intellectually but you’re not going to be able to talk to yourself into it psychological. That’s what this does. This will retune your trade psychology. That’s the point. There’s one other — couple other studies here that are worth looking at, day of the week. Yeah, why not? Looks like Wednesday underperforms, doesn’t it, 63%? I mean, would you rather focus on Mondays and Thursdays based on this information? Maybe. I mean 63% is still very profitable. Thirteen grand. But you got to work harder. Maybe you don’t want to work so hard. That’s also the day when the inventory report comes out. Maybe you want to adjust your strategy to try to lift that number. How are you going to know to do that if you don’t have this kind of information? This is all money in your pocket right here. That leads me to the power of quitting. What if you don’t know when to quit trading? Well, with the UTA, not only can you test your power of quitting, how many wins and positive that’s — you know, it says 99 but what if I wanted — notice that it’s $63,720 right here. But what if I want to quit after just two winners and a positive result? Well, keep in mind that this is a two position approach, two trades per trade, I showed you earlier. So you might want to put a four in there. Well, it still is profitable, wasn’t it? It wasn’t as profitable but you got to factor in commission. But you could study it. What if you wanted one win and done, and that’s it? Well, that’s pretty profitable too. Twenty thousand bucks is a whole lot fewer trades. You could also change this to style B. And then you’re looking at these bottom numbers, a number of wins or a number of losses, whichever comes first. And then you quit. So maybe you’ll hate losing more than three trades in a session and you’re going to quit with either four winners or three losses. Of course, I’m doubling the number because it’s two positions. Well, what’s that going to give us? That was pretty profitable, $43,500 with a whole lot fewer trades. 70% winning percentage, not bad. Imagine being able to do To obtain your free backtesting software, The Ultimate Trade Analyzer Simple, and follow along, visit .ultimatetradeanalyzer.com/simple-download. For more free day trading educational webinars visit .netpicks.com/learning-center/training-webinars. Stay tuned for the rest of this 6 –part series, or if you simply cannot wait, watch the entire webinar here: ..netpicks../trading-tips/webinar-recording-backtesting-secrets-revealed-with-the-ultimate-trade-analzyer/ About the Author: 相关的主题文章: